Economic & Geopolitical Outlook 2021

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Eco Geo Outlook 2021

Event Details

When:

January 28, 2021 9 AM - 10 AM GMT

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Overview

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Since last year’s event we have experienced truly extraordinary times both economically and politically. This signature New Year event takes a real-time view of the economy and geopolitical influences in play before drilling down into what is likely to impact mid-market M&A in 2021 in the UK and overseas. 

Consistently ranked as a highlight in the event programme, join us on 28th January to get the inside track from our panel of experts:  

  • Trevor Williams, Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer and Public Speaker
  • David Chmiel, Managing Director, Global Torchlight
  • David Laws, Strategic Advisor, GK Strategy
  • Stuart Rock, award-winning journalist and editor (moderator) 

Starting with the broadest picture, what the lasting effects of the pandemic will be and how change has been accelerated by Covid-19.

Exploring longer-term effects on the global economy, and with varying speeds of recovery, when can economies safely open again?

Covid-19 isn't going away anytime soon. What is the cost of dealing with the virus and impact on Governments' spending, considering low interest rates and huge increases in global debt?

The pandemic is having a massive impact on geopolitics. Key political issues in 2021 under discussion are: 

  • Can the US heal: with the aftermath of the US election and fractures in society, will US markets and economy fare better under a Democrat president? Will there be any significant change in economic and/or trade policies? 
  • The rise of China and potential ramifications of an EU/China deal.
  • Mainland Europe: with authoritarianism in eastern Europe and a new German Chancellor on the horizon, will greater integration of EU take place or will other schisms emerge? What path will Germany take in a post-Merkel world?
  • With Brexit no longer an ‘if’, the impact on the UK economy. Will it diverge more from EU, or continue to be aligned and are there any advantages? We’ll also explore a possible future break-up of the UK.

How these political and pandemic effects play on other major trends such as environment, trade, inequality and societal changes. In these contexts, debating the key issues for M&A practitioners:

  • Government oversight of business decision-making
  • Politicisation of cross-border deals
  • COP-26, the climate change agenda and the risk of an extinction-level event
  • Growth of renewable energy
  • Healthcare
  • Property and infrastructure
  • Cyber security

Speakers

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Trevor Williams

Trevor Williams

Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer and Public Speaker

Trevor cuts through the noise, demystifying economics. He has mastered the art of communicating the complex and making it understandable, whether through the written word or a presentation. And, with a network of contacts across academia and amongst professional economists, he’s at the cutting edge of economics today.

Trevor Williams is the former Chief Economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, a position he held for well over 10 years. During this time he established a highly-regarded, award-winning, team of economists analysing global and domestic data to support clients ranging from financial institutions, large corporates to SMEs with bespoke insight.

He is a visiting Professor at the University of Derby, rotating Chairman of the Institute of Economic Affairs Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) and author of Trading Economics: A Guide to Economic Statistics for Practitioners (with Victoria Turton).

Trevor also lectures at CASS business school and Cardiff University. He is on the editorial board of Economia and the Journal of Corporate Treasury Management. He previously lectured in Economics and Business Statistics, before working in the UK Government Economic Service (GES). He sits on various charities, including as Patron of Reach Society, Chairman of Ballet Black, and Through the Looking Glass.

He regularly writes articles for publications, such as Moneyfacts, Clear Path Analysis, and Economia to name a few. He appears in the financial press and on television to discuss and comment on economic issues.

Trevor now runs a consultancy which specialises in economic analysis encompassing ‘big data’ – the large information set being created from the 4th industrial revolution sweeping the world – to better understand a fast-changing global economy, and its political context: i.e. its political economy.

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David Chmiel

David Chmiel

Global Torchlight
Managing Director

David is managing director of Global Torchlight, a political and security risk research and consulting firm. He advises companies in a broad range of industries on the effects of geopolitical risk on their business strategies and operations. He has a particular interest in issues related to the "weaponisation of capital" – the use of trade and investment for broader national security and foreign policy purposes.

Prior to co-founding Global Torchlight, David practiced for ten years as a transactional lawyer in the London and Chicago offices of a leading global law firm. His practice focused on advising Fortune 500 companies on their cross-border acquisitions, divestitures and reorganisations.

David contributes to media in Canada, the UK, and the US on geopolitical developments and speaks frequently on these topics at conferences and seminars. He holds an MA in Intelligence and International Security from the War Studies Department of King’s College London, an LL.B (Hons) degree from University College London and a BA in Economics and History from the University of Victoria, British Columbia.

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David Laws

David Laws

GK Strategy
Strategic Advisor

David Laws served as Member of Parliament for Yeovil between 2001 and 2015, and held various senior positions within the Liberal Democrats – including as education spokesperson – before joining the Coalition Government in 2010 as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. 

Between 2012 and 2015, David served as Minister of State in the Department for Education and in a cross-departmental position in the Cabinet Office, covering a range of different areas and playing an essential role in the development and delivery of Government policy. 

Today David uses his wealth of experience to provide strategic advice to GK's clients and is Executive Chairman of the Education Policy Institute and the Education Partnerships Group.

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Stuart Rock

Stuart Rock

Award Winning Journalist and Editor

Stuart has been an award-winning business journalist and editor for more than 30 years and is an independent business editor, writer and event moderator. He is a co-founder of World Class Britain (www.worldclassbritain.com), an evidence-based digital magazine focused on world-class achievement in Britain. 

For 17 years, Stuart was the editorial director and one of the founders of business media company Caspian Media. Stuart launched Caspian's titles Real Business - the UK's first magazine for entrepreneurs and today one of the leading websites for the UK SME community - and Real Deals - Europe's market-leading private equity title. He also created Business Voice, the magazine of the CBI, and oversaw the award-winning relaunch of Professional Engineering, the magazine of the Institute of Mechanical Engineers. A graduate of Magdalen College, Oxford, Stuart had previously been editor of the IoD's Director magazine between 1989-1996.  

A specialist in the entrepreneurial economy, Stuart is editorial adviser to the ScaleUp Institute, the private sector-led not-for-profit body established in 2015 to make the UK the best place in the world to scale up a business. He was editor-in-chief of www.greatbusiness.gov.uk and content adviser to the Coalition Government’s Business is GREAT campaign.

Stuart has won numerous editorial and publishing awards, including the title Editor of the Year by the Professional Publishers Association (PPA) for the launch of Real Business. He is a blogger and contributor to several titles, including Huffington Post, Corporate Financier and Professional Management. He has advised many blue-chip corporations and business institutions on their editorial and communication strategies, including IBM, Thales, Atkins and Vodafone. He is also an angel investor in the media sector. 

You can follow Stuart on Twitter: @stuart_rock.

Event Secondary Body

0900-1000 GMT/1000-1100 CET. 

There will be opportunity for Q&A during the event. 

The session will be recorded and made available to registered guests. 


    Hosted by: ACG
    Chapter
    U.K.
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